Equipment Spending Slows but Still Positive
Front End fab equipment spending (including new, used, and in-house) is projected to increase 5.0 percent in 2015 (to US$ 37.0 billion) and another 6.6 percent in 2016 (to $39.4 billion) according to most recent edition of the SEMI World Fab Forecast. SEMI data indicates that some companies still plan to increase equipment spending in the second half of 2015, compared to the first half.
Equipment Spending (Front End) Chart
Examining spending by product segment, foundry is expected to slow in 2015 (-3 percent) but is expected to gain momentum in 2016 (14 percent). In memory, equipment spending is predicted to grow 16 percent by the end of 2015, but will drop about 1 percent in 2016.
Mirroring slow growth in capex and equipment spending, growth in worldwide installed capacity growth is forecasted at between 2 and 3 percent in both 2015 and 2016. SEMI's World Fab Forecast details capacity by product segment. The most added capacity will be seen in foundries (5 percent in 2015 and 4 percent in 2016), Flash including 3D NAND (5 percent in 2015 and 3-4 percent in 2016), and LEDs (14 percent in 2015 and 9 percent in 2016).
Capacity additions vary by wafer size, with slow steady gains in 200mm wafers while 300mm capacity may grow less in 2016.
Capacity additions vary by wafer size with increasing gains in 200mm wafers from 1.6 percent in 2015 to 2.4 percent in 2016 and continuous growth for 300mm wafers with 4 percent each in 2015 and 2016.
According to SEMI's data, at least 23 facilities (with various probabilities) will begin construction in 4Q15 or later in the future. In 2015, SEMI forecasts 17 new construction projects and in 2016, SEMI expects 11 new construction projects. The SEMI report tracks a total of 43 new and continuous construction projects in 2015 with investment totalling over $5.9 billion.
