Good And Bad EV And Off Grid Forecasting


When the Mayor of London plans a ban on
parking in all new apartment blocks, it is best not to assume, as many
forecasters still do, that car sales will go on up forever. Factor in trials of
autonomous taxi-buses from Switzerland to New Zealand and the rise in internet
shopping using electric delivery vans. They are all going to hit car sales,
including taxis. Bill Gates' Belmont new city in Arizona is being based on more
space-efficient, safer, less expensive alternatives to cars. Cleaner too "“ even
electric cars emit particulates from their tires.

Analysts IDTechEx finds that there are
several other indicators of dramatic change in the land, water and air vehicles
increasingly made and operated by the same companies. The Chinese are clearer
about this than most. They bottom fish in the West to get large brands headed
for the rocks, those in denial about disruptive change, the latest example
being targeting Fiat Chrysler. When successful, they inject massive funds to
change direction. Volvo is an EV company now. They also buy small companies
creating that disruption. Geely buying Volvo then the flying car company
Terrafugia is an example of both. Terrafugia is also well advanced in
development of vertical takeoff personal aircraft and taxis. For all its
appalling corporate management, Uber is another company seeing that change
coming. Tesla too. Even if its kamikaze approach to finance kills it, others
will continue its superb work. Airbus, Siemens and Rolls Royce now develop a
range-extended electric feeder aircraft with zero emission silent modes for 24
hour operation. See IDTechEx report, "Manned Electric Aircraft 2018-2028".

In sad contrast, PSA Peugeot-Citroen is
reportedly preparing to sue GM, claiming it was misled over its Opel and
Vauxhall businesses when it bought them. It did not expect to be buying
companies with inadequate programs to meet impending pollution laws. By
contrast, Volkswagen has had the good fortune to be kicked in the right
direction by diesel emission punishments and new management and they have even
spotted another disruptive change of huge importance ten years from now. It is
the Energy Independent Electric Vehicle EIEV that is pure electric but can
bypass the charging stations and electricity utilities completely: it never
plugs in. Its Audi has licensed the high efficiency solar bodywork technology
from Hanergy of China. Many others fail to appreciate the significance of one
kilowatt from a car body that expands on parking.

Hanergy demonstrated EIEV solar cars in
2016 and few people noticed. Analysts IDTechEx wrote the annual report now
called, "Energy Independent Electric Vehicles Land, Water, Air
" and staged the world's first conference on the subject,
publicising how New Zealand launched a solar boat July 2017 that can power
three houses on arrival, the Chinese are ahead of the Americans and Europeans
in endurance of solar drones to beam the internet to everyone and how a US
camper van now travels and cooks on sunshine alone.

Wind is important here too. An autonomous
boat with a wind turbine and no solar will soon use its 70kW to cross the
Atlantic rapidly, regardless of wind direction. Land vehicles and ships are
using wind with solar. Airborne Wind Energy is moving from kites to tethered
drones that can even take off in still weather to tap the four times stronger
winds above conventional wind turbines that is more consistent. Significantly
it is much stronger at night when solar is dead: the perfect partner. Here is a
route to make the world's filthiest vehicles zero emission "“ large ships each belching
NOx, SOx and killer particulates equivalent to millions of cars. See the
IDTechEx reports, "Airborne Wind Energy 2018-2028" and "Electric Boats and Ships 2018-2028".

There is more. There are 110 projects for
solar roads across the world and several research projects to make electricity
from road movement, piezoelectric or electrodynamic, even one to tap surface
heat. Even if only a minority succeed, we are facing elegantly self-powered
dynamic charging of EVs as they go along and even automatic self-powered
de-icing of roads so the vehicles are safe, power being boosted by solar
tunnels and new types of roadside wind turbine. This is just a part of
the astonishing off grid zero emission story. For more see IDTechEx
overview, "Off Grid Zero-emission Electricity 2018-2038: New
Markets, New Technology Roadmap
" and drill down "Off Grid Electric Vehicle Charging 2018-2038",
"Electricity Generation by Urban Infrastructure: Zero
Emission 2018-2050
". Moving with the times, the "IDTechEx Show!" 11-12 April Berlin with over
3000 paying delegates, over 250 presentations and over 220 exhibitors has added
an Off Grid conference to its parallel two day conferences on electric
vehicles, batteries and other complementary technologies.

All the new technologies are leading to
another disruption most forecasters are sleeping through. The UN, WHO and
others extrapolate to predict 80% of us living in cities in 2050 and that may
indeed happen, but people are moving to cities to get jobs, communication, education
and entertainment. Piece the above changes together and we get internet
education and entertainment, continuous phone access and almost free
electricity in the remotest countryside, which already has much cheaper
accommodation. Remote regions get easy rapid access to cities and food grows
even in beautiful wasteland. We'll wait for the penny to drop on that one.

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